A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
